ONE: THE FUNDAMENTALS
session will consist of lecture,
followed by hands-on workshop and then group discussion.
- What is Litigation Risk
AnalysisTM and why is it necessary? Participate
in group demonstrations of why the approach currently used by most attorneys to
value lawsuits can produce bad results.
- Capturing the Key Uncertainties
in Your Case
- How do you sort out all issues -- pretrial and trial, legal and factual, liability and
damages, judge and jury?
Learn about dependency diagrams to better identify the
key issues in a lawsuit, their interrelationships and their consequences;
then learn how to convert them to decision trees to facilitate
a better quantitative valuation of the suit.
- Quantifying Your Subjective
- What hidden "anchors"
can distort every lawyer's judgment? Learn how to assess more realistic probabilities
of success in front of judge or jury and more realistic verdict ranges.
- Solving for the Value of Your
- How should you combine your various assessments
on all the liability and damages issues to arrive at a fair settlement value
for your case? We will discuss
the underlying arithmetic concepts, see how to calculate the expected
value and generate a bar chart. We will also discuss the impact of litigation costs and the client's
willingness to take risk on your settlement strategy.
- Refining Your Pretrial and
- If your case is not about to
settle, what would be the most cost-effective way to spend your time and
money? See how sensitivity
analyses are performed and how they provide a rational
"cost-benefit" approach for deciding where to allocate your
pretrial dollars and which trial strategies to pursue.
DAY TWO: USING THE SOFTWARE
(1) An understanding of the material covered on Day One.
(2) A copy of TreeAge Pro on a laptop.
- Building a Dependency/Influence
- ... that captures the issues,
their interrelationships and their consequences.
- Building a Decision Tree
- ... that captures the substance
of your dependency/influence diagram -- and is technically sound.
- Assessing Realistic
Probabilities and Verdict Ranges
- ... using node comments (i.e., lists of reasons) and
the probability wheel.
- Creating and Defining Verdict Variables and Formulas
- ... permitting TreeAge Pro to calculate for you the
total verdict for every scenario.
- Generating the Expected Value
and the Litigation Bar Chart
- ... showing the full range of potential outcomes and
their corresponding probabilities of occurring, as well as the mean value
of the distribution.
- Creating Probability Variables and Generating
Sensitivity Analysis Graphs
- ... allowing you to see the impact on case value of
improving your probabilities of good results on the various issues.
- Working with Clones
- ... so large trees can be constructed, solved, and
modified more rapidly.